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2016 Candidate Rankings: Republicans

2016 iowa caucus news polls scott walkerCandidate Rankings
The 2016 Iowa Caucus will be ranking the top Republican and Democrat candidates based on poll data. In addition we will use this data and additional research to rank the top candidates in the 2016 Iowa Caucus in future articles.

CBS NEWS POLL

Campaign 2016: Who Should Run?
January 9-12, 2015

Question: I’m going to read you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you would like to see them run for President of the United States in 2016, or not, or whether you don’t know enough about that person to say.

Results

Republicans % Independents %
Jeb Bush – Yes 50 30
No 27 42
Chris Christie – Yes 29 22
No 44 40
Rand Paul – Yes 27 26
No 34 32
Mitt Romney – Yes 59 33
No 26 49
Marco Rubio – Yes 26 19
No 19 30
Scott Walker – Yes 22 13
No 12 19
Ted Cruz – Yes 21 17
No 25 32
Bobby Jindal – Yes 14 12
No 20 21
Ben Carson – Yes 21 12
No 17 15

Analysis
We created a simple algorithm that finds the +/- difference in the average of Republicans and Independents would said yes minus who said no. Romney lead the pack with a +17.
The next number is the average percent of voters who “Don’t know enough to say” and are therefore considered potential votes. These potential votes are only as good as the candidate’s yes/no vote’s number. A negative would project to stay negative.
While Mitt Romney lead the pack with +17, only 16.5% are undecided about him, so his room to grow is limited. Scott Walker, on the other hand, has the most upside with 67% undecided, and he is currently at +4. Walker poses the most dangerous threat to win the Republican nomination according to this early poll data.
Ben Carson would represent the dark horse who could get on the map with success in Iowa.
Chris Christie’s, Bobby Jindal’s, and Ted Cruz’s negatives are too high at this time to pose a threat to the nomination according to the data.

1. Mitt Romney +17 — 16.5%
2. Jeb Bush +11 — 25.5%
3. Scott Walker +4 — 67%
4. Ben Carson +1 — 67.5%
5. Marco Rubio -4 — 53%
6. Rand Paul -13 — 40.5%
7. Bobby Jindal -15 — 66.5%
8. Chris Christie -16.5 — 32.5%
9. Ted Cruz -19 — 52.5%

 

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