We examine the widely varying polling methods being used in Iowa. The polling misfire in Greece raises questions about the accuracy of polling yet again. And is Trump really the frontrunner? This is HuffPollster for Friday, July 10, 2015.
KNOW YOUR IOWA POLLSTERS – With retail campaigning just getting underway in Iowa, the preferences of the state’s likely caucus goers will soon start to matter. Caucus turnout is low compared to typical primary elections, so the details of how pollsters select those voters are important. To help give polling junkies a sense of the differences in their methods, we introduce “Know Your Iowa Pollsters,” a running HuffPollster feature to provide some of the most basic details.
Today we examine the methods used by the five most recent Iowa polls, all conducted between late May and late June, that collectively span a wide spectrum of approaches. No two use exactly the same combination of mode and sampling technique. Two use live interviewers exclusively (Des Moines Register/Selzer and Quinnipiac University), two use an automated recorded voice method (Monmouth College/KBUR/We Ask America and Advantage Inc) and one uses a combination of live telephone and an internet panel sample (Morning Consult).
The DMR/Selzer and Quinnipiac surveys sampled both landline and mobile phones. The two automated surveys are prevented by the federal TCPA from dialing mobile phones. The Morning Consult poll sampled landline phones for its telephone component and attempted to reach cell-only households through the internet panel.
Read Full Article: HUFFPOLLSTER: A Closer Look At Iowa Polls