In a recent Pew Research poll, President Barack Obama leads a generic Republican opponent in the upcoming presidential election with a solid 47% to 37% tally.
With just under two years to go until the election, the numbers will be considered meaningless by some, and in many ways this is true. But when an incumbent candidate is closing in on the 50% threshold, the other side should always worry some, even early on. When that same incumbent candidate is in the midst of high unemployment, high gas prices and three wars, and is still polling near 50%, the opposing candidate will have their work cut out for them.
President George W. Bush fared slightly better in an April 2003 with 48% of Americans saying the wanted him to be reelected and 34% wanted a generic Democrat to win. He went on to win reelection.
Source: Pew Research Poll