Trump support tops out, Carson, Cruz, and Fiorina make gains in new poll

ben carsonInterviews with 2,014 adult Iowans conducted by telephone by ORC International on August 7-11, 2015. The margin of sampling error for
results based on the total sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The sample also includes 1,258 interviews among likely caucus goers (plus or minus 3 percentage points).
This sample includes 1,212 interviews among landline respondents and 802 interviews among cell phone respondents.

If the Republican presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support.


Who has the best chance of winning in 2016?
Interestingly, Jeb Bush has high ratings for ‘likely to win’ though his support in Iowa is very low (5%).  Conversely, Ben Carson has high ratings in Iowa (14%), but only 5% think he could win in 2016.
Trump is leading in both, but his numbers have not pushed past the low 20% mark.  His high negatives suggest he has reached his ceiling.  With the large amount of candidates, 20% would likely win the Iowa Caucus, but if the number goes down to ten or less it opens the door for other candidates to gain.
It appears that the winners of the first GOP debate in the minds of Iowans was Carly Fiorina, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson who all made significant gains.

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